all right. we asked you for e-mails at the top of the show. tower, what do you got? >> reads here in ohio, we're glad to know we won't be clubbed like baby seals with tv ads tomorrow. and donny writes, trying to decide who to vote for, who's running? >> the undecided vote with nine seconds left until polls open. "morning joe" starts right now.

. ♪ all of you who have lived and breathed the hard work of change, i want to thank you. you took this campaign and you made it your own and you organized yourselves. block by block, neighborhood by neighborhood, county by county. starting a movement that spread across the cub. country. a movement made of young and old and rich and poor, black and white, latino, asian, native american. >> together we must lead america to a better place. we're one day away from a fresh start, one day away from the first day of a new beginning.

my conviction is that better days are ahead, and that's not based on promises and hollow rhetoric, but solid plans and proven results. and on an unshakable relief in the greatness of the american spirit. >> good morning. it is tuesday, november 6th. election day, welcome to "morning joe." we're at democracy plaza. >> i can just feel it. >> i can too. i love it, actually. it's beautiful, we're at 30 rock in new york city, and with us onset here at democracy plaza. we have msnbc contributor and former senior strategist from the mccain/palin campaign, steve schmidt? >> coming attraction. >> good tease. >> he's down in south florida. we also have mark haleprin, senior political analyst, and look at this, this is huge. >> we have michael steele. >> michael steele here. >> oh, my gosh. >> it's a great way to start.

>> wow. >> great way to start six hours of coverage. >> thank you. >> we also have john heilemann, he's in chicago. >> yes, we do. >> do we have john heilemann. >> great. that's great. >> this is a fun game. >> throw out a name and see if they're here. >> we started this really well. >> you know, in major league baseball, t.j., getting 4 out of 5 right, you would be -- >> that's pretty good. >> it'll get you fired on election day. hey, everybody let's vote. fire t.j. okay. here we go. mika, the "new york times" talks about now it goes to the voters state-by-state, "usa today" talks about decision time. today's a huge day? >> yes, people are choosing on the direction of the country. >> yeah, what do you think? >> i think it'll be obama but it'll be close and that'll be good for everybody. >> okay. well, that's one day. i'm not quite so sure.

mark haleprin, though, we've been waiting for these late-breaking polls, republicans have, remembering 1980. the late break didn't come, and if it really did, it broke just slightly toward the president. so these state polls are either skewed or barack obama's going to get another four years. >> narrowly if the polls are right, he'll get a narrow victory. but they're close enough and there's enough volatility in the electorate that i think we should all just wait and see. but certainly -- >> no, let's not do that. >> if you're going on the zeros and ones, the president enters today in the electoral college and the overall landscape, a little bit of an advantage. >> i'm scared to ask, is chuck todd in his command center? or is that just a lie in the script? oh, look, he's here. >> if you turn around and look behind you. >> 5 out of 6. >> i can wave to you. how you doing? you know what's awesome -- how did you make a mess already up there, by the way?

>> leave it to us. >> how does that happen? >> this is amazing. i feel like i'm in a space film. let me out. chuck todd, you're down there. i'm going to look this way to talk to you that way. so what's it looking like as we go into election day? >> you know, look -- i'm with mark, i like the ones and zeros. all the metrics go one way and all you hear from the romney folks are, but, there'll be republican enthusiasm and there'll be this turnout. and my only question in that is half the battleground states have already voted. half the vote is in. right. that's the problem. there isn't this sort of last-second surge you can affect in the way that say '76, right, ford gets the lead on the election, but election day carter has the bigger momentum and able to overtake ford at the end. none of that is quite there. so you do feel somehow romney's got to win today by huge

numbers. in some places he's got to win election day to carry the state by eight or nine points. he's got older voters, they're reliable, going to show up. there's clearly been a republican enthusiasm difference between the two sides. but that's a lot of ground to make up in some of these states. >> that is a lot of ground to make up. and again, mika, the thing i've said all along, you're never in any campaign concerned so much about the spread between you and your opponent. you're concerned about the momentum. and if you're closing as mitt romney was a week ago, then you're thinking i'm going to catch him. there has been, of course, there was a stall because of sandy. and if you believe all the polls and i do, a slight moving away from mitt romney over the past couple of days. >> i think sandy convoluted everything and leaves us with a real nail biter. >> yeah, convoluted everything. look at new jersey, just right across the river. you have chris christie hugging

and loving on barack obama and then bruce springsteen hugging and love on chris christie. this is willie geist, as it was foretold in ghostbusters so many moons ago, cats and dogs living together. >> 6:06, the first "ghostbusters" reference. >> i'm going to try to average two an hour. >> chris christie's been waiting for that hug from the boss for a long time, by the way. >> he did cry. >> chris christie's a governor and his state is under siege from the weather system. it's not like the president was hugging and loving on john boehner and they were riding in air force one together. that would have been a story, this is just people doing their job. >> you think about chris christie, i mean -- >> what? >> you should have called charlie crist before he hugged the president. >> okay. >> it's a joke. we're just joking. he did wait for that bruce springsteen hug for a long time. >> mika called this a long time

a campaign about nothing. this was the "seinfeld" campaign. in the last two weeks, it became about something serious. the president had a serious job to do and the country watched him perform as the president of the united states, not as a campaigner or spinner or somebody attacking mitt romney. they watched him do his job and now they'll judge whether they liked watching him do his job or not. >> and same with chris christie in new jersey. on the national state level, if the president wins and chris christie does next year, it's a message that working together. not such a bad thing. >> let's get to the national polling in recent weeks which has barely budged showing president obama and mitt romney deadlocked in a statistical tie with the 2000 election in mind. both sides have assembled legal teams to handle any voting irregularities on possible recounts. this contest will likely come down to a handful of swing states which have shown the president with a consistent but razor thin advantage among likely voters.

polling precincts and a number of states including virginia and new hampshire have just opened their doors for voting. as is tradition, two tiny new hampshire villages were the first to cast their ballots. at midnight, it was a split decision. five votes for each candidate. >> by the way, mark haleprin, being a sick man like you, i was awake -- >> that is sick. >> john padorits right after the announcement 5-5 tweeted, i am disappointed with the election coverage so far. >> it's been weak. look -- >> it has. >> it's going to be a long day of voting. and depending on the east coast results, we may go well into tonight and into tomorrow. we've got casting to do and counting to do. and those new hampshire towns are pretty good at casting and counting, but they've got a small sample space. a lot of the story of today is going to be the casting and counting in florida, virginia, and ohio. as we get long lines, which we

hope we have, also how people process provisional ballots, those ballots cast by people who have some coop fusion about whether they're actually registered, how those are handled across the country is going to be a big deal. >> michael steele, give republicans a reason to be hopeful this morning. because right now, if you look at the state-by-state polls, there's not a reason of to -- it's only a point or two. but give republicans -- >> i think the benefit of the doubt falls to romney. i think a lot of folks will go into the voting booth, assess the last four years, the economy, their own personal economy and decide, look, we've had this opportunity, it was a missed opportunity in my view and we're going to move in a new direction, number one. number two, i think the organization on the ground, i think the republicans have been very good at putting together their machine. i think the point that chuck makes can't be overlooked. yeah, there was a lot of early votes that have been cast, you know, at a time when romney was trying to get his voice. but the fact of the matter is,

the turnout game is going to be the push. and republicans have a good turnout game. >> it's what matters. chuck todd, give us, first of all, barack obama's easiest route to 270. there are so many you can choose. >> sure. >> but then give us mitt romney's. most plausible route. >> all right. let me do that. i was going to do the poll closing thing because that's going to be fun to watch tonight too. let me go to that for you. and that's been -- that's been the issue this entire campaign, right? which is how easy it is for the president and right now giving romney the benefit of the doubt, we're putting pennsylvania in our in play section here. but if you assume pennsylvania, ohio, and wisconsin, right? this has been the problem for mitt romney the entire time. that's all he needs. he can lose iowa, he can lose florida, he can lose colorado, he can lose all of new hampshire. and he can lose virginia. and romney would come up short. this to me, by the way, would

be -- this would be the most plausible split decision popular vote romney, the president winning the electoral college when you look at it. a bunch of the bigger states and the battlegrounds going one way. romney, obviously, you know, he's got a fairly decent path, but the problem for him has always been, joe, he could win florida, virginia, and ohio and he was always four short. he needed one other state. and that's new hampshire. that's why he spent yesterday, his schedule was florida, virginia, ohio, new hampshire because that is the exact math to 270. >> i have noticed, chuck, we were talking about movement in polls. i have noticed the tightening in ohio over the past day or two. >> right. >> a lot of one and two-point polls, does that sound right to you in talking to both campaigns? do both sides expect ohio to be much closer than it was a week

ago? >> well, you know, it depends -- i've talked to some republicans who are pessimistic more today because of the -- they believe they took a step back to put it in cliched football terms, they were in field goal range and instead of running the ball three yards, lining up for the nice easy field goal to tie the race and move on and keep fighting, they threw in to triple coverage, it was picked off and now they might be down by, you know -- there's fear among some republicans they could lose by three, four, or five points in ohio and literally because he's going to -- in toledo, in that area in the northern part of the state. >> right. >> he's going to end up losing ground he was actually gaining. >> john heilemann in chicago, you were with obama yesterday, how are they feeling? >> good morning, guys. i was with the president up in starting the day in madison and

meeting back up with him here in des moines for his last rally last night and then proceeding here to chicago. and a lot of the obama team was out yesterday. very nostalgic feel on the road. most of the guys around him who helped him win in 2008 with him yesterday. david axelrod, david plouffe, robert gibbs, jay carney, a lot of people on the road. you know, their confidence level is extraordinarily high right now, and i talked to all of them over the course of those couple of stops. they are as convinced -- and they're not -- i really don't -- there's just not a spin job. they were talking in many cases off the record. i have the reasonable sense of their body language, they are about as confident you can be they're going to win the electoral college. they're a little less confident they're going to win the popular vote. but when they look at the battleground states right now, they raise the possibility. they don't think this is likely, but they raise the possibility the president could win all nine

battleground states. they're pretty sure he's not going to win north carolina. but they feel like they have at least four of those battleground states pretty much in the bag. they think nevada, wisconsin, iowa, and new hampshire are all pretty much in the president's column. they feel like ohio is almost certain to go for them. and that, obviously, would give them more than 270 electoral votes there. they think they are a little ahead in virginia. i feel pretty confident about virginia, they think colorado and florida are -- they think colorado and florida are pure toss-ups right now. they could win those, they might lose them and as i said, north carolina's the only one of the nine battleground states where they are pessimistic, but the rest they feel good about. and when you think about that altogether, that's why they feel really self-assured they're going to win the electoral college tonight if not the popular vote. >> can you imagine? to finish out the two tiny villages in new hampshire, 23 votes for president obama, nine

for romney, and tonight, the polls begin closing in eastern in kentucky at 6:00 eastern time. our first big clue on how the election might unfold will come at 7:00 when the polls close in another half dozen states including the battleground states of virginia with 13 electoral votes up for grabs, it's a state, of course, president obama turned blue back in 2008 by a seven-point margin there. >> and you can't really tell, obviously, early in the evening. a lot of people are thinking this may go for a long time. but i remember back 2004, and mike, i was onset with you and everybody was talking about how john kerry was going to win. i got a call from south florida, saw that bush had overperformed in miami-dade and broward and palm beach county from what republicans usually do. and you could tell early in the night that bush was going to outperform. so you can start to tell pretty

early, but you think this one's going to go late into the night? or think it's going to be over early? >> i do have a feeling we'll be up very late tonight, well into the morning before a couple of states have declared and we find out who the winner is. but for years in covering these things, i've always sort of mentally checked out on the numbers over the last 24 hours and the emotion of the day is what draws me into it. what interests me. you have these two men who have spent an enormous amount of time, an exhausting amount of time, two years traveling the country, and the people who work for them, traveling the country. and at the last moments, in the last moments of the campaign, they're both drawn to their homes, to chicago, to boston, and they end up in the dark of night and manchester, new hampshire, and des moines, iowa, pleading their case. and the emotion just pours out of them. and then everything that we've said for a year or two years, the punditry, the predictions,

the who's going to win ohio, the who's going to win florida goes out the window because people go to the polls, they draw the curtain, and then the only place in the world where it happens, they vote, a peaceful transition occurs or power is retained by the president, it's a magical moment we don't pay enough attention to. >> you can hear exactly what mike's talking about in both of their voices last night. mitt romney's voice was strained. he declared his candidacy on june 2nd, 2011, 17 months ago. so it's all been leading up to that. president obama was brought to tears last night, wiped a tear away thinking about his long journey, his last campaign. so mike's right, these guys have poured it all out and now we're here. >> they have been out campaigning almost as long as we're going to be on this set today. >> not quite that long. >> no, not quite that long. >> doesn't feel that long. all right. we're going to check in with chuck todd later in the show. we are just getting started.

>> we're going to be here for 14 hours. >> we are. >> we've got newt gingrich, senior adviser to the campaign, and former director of the white house domestic council melanie barnes. up next, a special edition of politico with mike allen. and dan rather joins us on the set at democracy plaza. but first, let's go to bill karins with the latest on another storm headed toward the northeast. bill? >> for the first time in a long time, mika, i've got good news for people, especially that were impacted so badly from sandy. let me first get you through your election day forecast and then i'll talk to you about the nor'easter headed up the coast. the storm is located down along the southeast coastline. that's where we have the heavy rain. of course, a lot of interest in florida today with that vote. that i-4 corridor from tampa to orlando to daytona beach, heavy rain headed for the beginning of the opening of the polls early today. that rain should sweep out, no

issues getting to voting in the afternoon and evening. wisconsin and minnesota, a light wintery mix, but you're used to it up there, and a little bit of light rain in washington state. election day, we're looking good. now let's talk about the nor'easter and the effects for everyone devastated by sandy. first off, the coldest morning yet this fall season and the coldest morning since the hurricane, windchills are in the 20s right now. as far as the storm evolution, let's put it in motion and watch it coming up the north. watch the clock moving to the right. as it heads to the north, the rain shields off the coast. possibility of snow from philadelphia to trenton, up to the jersey shore, rain down around southern new england. what this all means is a little further off the coast, the winds would be a little bit weaker right along the shore. but we do have the possibility of seeing snow now in the areas hit by sandy. i think we'd take that, couple inches of wet, sloppy snow, no further irs for the power

outages. again, good news as far as the nor'easter's concerned. you're watching "morning joe." more continuing coverage from democracy plaza, we're brewed by starbucks. no, no, no, stop! humans -- one day, we're coming up with the theory of relativity, the next... stop, stop, stop! my car! not so much. but that's okay. you're covered with great ideas like optional better car replacement from liberty mutual insurance. total your car, and we give you the money to buy one a model year newer. learn about it at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility -- what's your policy? [ chuckles ] ♪ [ honk! ]

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well, look at that beautiful shot of democracy plaza. doesn't that make you feel like voting? >> it makes me feel like -- >> you should get out and vote today, right, willie? >> loving america. >> sun's coming up here in new york city on election day. and look who we've got here with us. joining us onset. >> i can't wait. >> dan rather. >> what's the first one? >> also with us from politico headquarters, the chief white house correspondent for politico, mike allen. >> let's hear a ratherism.

>> how tight is this race? >> swinging like count -- >> boom, boom. >> i believe that's new material. >> that'll never make twitter. >> dan, you've been through a few of these election days and you've made a lot of them memorable for a lot of us. what do you feel on a day like this? >> you know, great pride in the country. america's experimental country, something new in history, we're still a young country, and every election day, and i'm not afraid to say it, some may say a great sense of pride and patriotism in the country. these are two good men running for the presidency. you can criticize the campaign, but these are two good men and a country of free people, new country in the history multi-racial, multi-religious, multi-ethnic country holding itself together by individual vote, i couldn't be more excited about it.

>> you look at two of the last three elections, 2000 and 2004, in 2000, i remember watching you all night. and i remember you at one point saying it looked like gore, but you cobbled together how george w. bush could run the table and win. >> right. >> and you were right. and we went, of course, 30 something days before knowing he was going to win. and then in 2004, i remember everybody saying john kerry's won this thing. everybody, all the exit polls showed it. >> and john kerry thought he'd won it. >> john kerry thought he'd won, as well. >> those two races, certainly, should give us all pause before walking in to tonight's coverage thinking we know who's going to win before the voters. >> joe, i'm so glad you said that because the coverage this morning already has been pretty much in the direction, listen, it's obama's to lose here. he's probably going to win it. all the polls show one thing going one direction. but it's election, time for spin and chatter analysis is over.

now the people -- >> just cover it. >> you can lay out a plan that romney wins this election, and i'll be honest with you as i always try to be. something in my gut tells me that it's going to be a good day for romney. but as a reporter, you don't report your gut. the polls all indicate, yes, obama, he has several paths to victory, romney has only one, but don't taunt the alligator until after you cross the creek. >> another one. >> if obama gets his vote out, i agree he probably wins, but there's some doubt in my mind that he's going to get his vote totally out. and romney's vote will get out, partly because it's older people, his people are very well motivated, many detest the president. the good book says the race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong. as reporters we say that is the way to bet it. if you've got to bet it, i agree. you've got to bet on obama. but, let's get the votes in and

get the votes in, counted, then see where we are. >> yeah. >> mike allen with us down at politico. mike, what are you going to be looking at over the next several hours. our polls are open already. three minutes more at the top of the hour at 7:00. where will your focus be down at politico? >> first, real quick, i'm going to share my favorite ratherism. this was when i was in california watching on the trinatron, dan rather said that the race that night, he said this is like a too long car ride home from the beach in a too tight bathing suit. >> i remember. >> i love it. >> that would be a long car ride. that's pretty good. >> mike, what are you looking at today? >> a little sandy. we're going to have a big indication early with that 7:00 poll close in virginia. romney's tried to be so dependent on battleground virginia. we're going to know pretty soon what kind of a night, how long a

night it's going to be for mitt romney just as we're watching hamilton county in ohio, two counties, those virginia -- in virginia, tell me who wins loudon county, virginia, it was obama in '08, tell me who won those counties, i'll tell you who almost certainly is president. we also know very early from the demographic in your exit polls, that if young people turn out, and since it's not a specific state, that's going to be a huge indicator if i want any one demographic piece from tonight it's that youth vote. >> and mike, you're also asking can obama beat romney in the state of ohio by more than 100,000 votes? why is that significant? >> yeah, we're looking at velocity. and what we're going -- if there's that kind of pressure behind the president, it means that romney's having trouble overcoming it everywhere. that this momentum, these amazing crowd sizes that i think

probably give dan rather that feeling he has in his gut, that it's not showing up at the ballot box. >> what do you think dan rather gave mitt romney the momentum -- the one thing i noticed over the weekend is the crowds were huge. and in my opinion, i don't think his campaign is capable of actually creating that for him. so therefore it happened. it was real. what do you think touched it off? >> i think the first debate touched it off. that was the momentum starter for him. and as the momentum gathered, which it did, his basic message of the economy is not nearly as good of shape as people think it is, the economy and jobs, that's been the core, the spine of his campaign. and particularly with women in the age group 24 to about 55, they went very heavily for obama the last time. not so heavily this time if you can believe the polls. and i think saying, listen, i like president obama, i like him on the social issues, like him for a lot of reasons, but you know what? my husband's out of work and i'm

not so sure about my job and i think that cut for him and built the momentum. i do believe that the hurricane stopped his momentum at precisely the moment when he seemed to be gathering a little bit. he didn't catch the wave over the weekend. a lot of people were saying, well, don't forget 1980 ronald reagan got the wave over the weekend. romney didn't get that. if anything, at least a slight indication that broke in obama's way. but that may or may not be decisive. look, this thing, obama, if he has a lead, it's as thin as turnip soup. and he's got to have -- >> that's number three. >> that's four. >> if we could write down. >> that's four. he brought the bible quote in. the bible, alligator, turnip soup -- >> i love it. >> that's a goody. >> and the bathing suit comes back. john heilemann, i love the closing weekend of every campaign in 2000, the bush people were thrown off badly by the dui story.

in 2004, everybody around here and certainly around the kerry campaign said it's breaking our way. and you can read the body language and the bush people were holding on for dear life. and, of course, we talked about 1980 already. the romney people were very confident on saturday night that things were breaking their way. the crowds were huge, they were excited about pennsylvania, but sort of sobered down by late sunday night. you were with romney in pennsylvania. talk about what you saw there. and, again, we're talking really more heart than head. what did the romney people believe? >> well, look, you know, joe, i think that there's no question to go to dan's point that, you know, the last week was tough for governor romney. you know, the president's people will say they don't think they gained very much from the storm in the sense it didn't affect the votes of many persuadable, undecided voters in swing states, which is what they're

focused on. governor romney, the challenger of the presidency, and basically stuck in a news blackout for five days last week. through no fault of his own irrelevant to the proceedings for five days. you know, by the time i caught up with him on sunday, you know, he had big crowds. i saw him in cleveland and then in bucks county, pennsylvania, at the pennsylvania event. the cleveland event was big and enthusiastic. the event in pennsylvania was insane. it was huge, somewhere between 25,000 and 30,000 people out on a very, very cold night just across the river from trenton. and, you know, the funny thing about it, though, governor romney did not seem that energized by the crowd. he was actually quite somber and quite -- and quite subdued. and a lot of reporters noted it. and i think, joe, to your point, i think it was starting to dawn on them that as the numbers were coming in, and the congealing, you talked about the president over the weekend seeming -- to the extent there was a break. numbers breaking his way.

i think that reality was kind of sinking in. not just in the romney campaign, where people are still saying, you know, very -- trying a little too hard to convince reporters we're going to win this thing, we're going to win this thing. i think it's sinking in with them that, in fact, he's losing, sinking in a little bit with the candidate. he was not, you know, by the time he got to that event in pennsylvania, which should have been an event that would've really fired -- >> like you said, it was remarkable. i mean, yeah. 25,000, 30,000. >> it was incredible. >> yeah. >> we rolled up in the bus. we rolled up in the buses and we looked at the crowd. it was a beautiful setting out in a field. people stretched as far as the eye could see. people, as i said, been waiting there, listening to marshall tucker all day, waiting for him to come. they were full of holler. and he got there and was a little bit aimless and meandering in his speech. not as good as he'd been in cleveland a few hours before. and i just got this sense that he was -- that as i say, whether

he was tired or whether the reality started to dawn on him that he's running out of time and the momentum he might have had at one point has kind of slipped through his fingers. >> well, it's hard to say. there also were reports this weekend, willie, that ann romney was exhausted and struggling -- >> they all are. >> you can understand why everyone's exhausted at this point. >> yeah, but i will say, again, i thought it was -- you could read jimmy carter's body language in 1980. sort of read that not with romney, but with some of his adviser tweens saturday and sunday that they realized -- >> you saw a shift. >> just a slight shift. but it could be something personal, as well. >> i want to ask you before we let you go here, dan. what you hope happens after this election, regardless of who wins. we've seen so much frustration in washington, so very little getting done. do you have any hope that things will be different a few months from now with the new or reelected president? >> well, willie, i'm an optimist by nature and by experience.

what i hope will happen is particularly those in washington get their act together and say, look, we've gone through the election. the people have spoken, now let's get some things done. there's a lot of evidence to indicate that will not be the case, particularly if the election is close, it's going to be extremely difficult to pull that off. but this is election day, we can hope. >> we can hope. >> my election day is complete because i've heard not one, not two, not three, but four ratherisms. >> turnip soup. >> i love it. dan rather, thank you. mike allen, thank you. >> thank you. >> thanks for your great coverage. >> standing by in the "morning joe" lounge. >> i had no idea. >> i hope it's warm in there. >> the msnbc political experience, harold ford jr. and katty cay, and jon meacham. >> he has a forthcoming book, as

well. he'll want us to say that too. also, president obama and mitt romney made a cameo last night on monday night football. you'll see that when we come back. we're going to try to stump some political junkies with questions from bing elections. do you know where your polling place is?

maybe somewhere around my house. mine's just, right over that way. well you can find out exactly where it is using bing elections. it's a good day for politics. which way do you lean politically? conservative. republican. well, using the bing news selector you can find news from whichever way you lean. (together) social on this side, financial. which party is currently predicted to win a majority in the senate? the republicans? would you make a bet on that? no. are you chicken? i'm thinking about upgrading... finally! jonathan was fine when you were in your 20s, but he's not right for you. good-bye jonathan and his creepy little girl hands. i meant... [ male announcer ] or choosing a windows 8 device with help from the experts at staples. another way staples and hp make it easier to upgrade. make your windows 8 experience even better with hp. and this week, get $200 off the hp envy dv6 notebook. staples. that was easy.

wire camera here in democracy plaza -- >> wire camera. >> we're going to have to -- >> when is the photo-op of barnicle on the zamboni. >> halftime. >> that's a long ways away. >> he's going to be chasing lewis. we're going to put lewis on the ice. >> i'd pay to watch that. >> speaking of sports, we were kind of talking about sports there. i'm a pro. some of the very last campaigning took place last night on monday night football. most candidates with halftime interviews on espn. >> it has to do with not getting distracted. by, you know, your own hype or the critics. it's interesting, political

reporters are a lot like sports reporters. and, you know, you lose a game and you're a bum. you win a game, you're a god. and, you know, the truth is that just like in sports, in politics, you know, we're all human. we make mistakes, sometimes we, you know, perform well, but the key is to just stay focused on what it is that you're doing. and in sports it's about winning championships. interesting in politics, it's not winning elections, it's making sure that you're delivering for the folks who sent you. >> do you have a favorite team? >> well, it is a new england patriots, i've lived in massachusetts now for 40 years and i take personal full responsibility for their two super bowl wins as well as the red sox winning the world series. hey, look, as a governor, you get blamed for everything that goes wrong, you might as well get the credit for what goes right. >> there you go.

>> by the way -- by the way, he loves sport ball. >> i don't know who was more painfully boring, actually. >> boring couple of interviews. >> if you watch those two interviews, you got a free toaster. >> you mean if you sat through both of them? >> awesome toasters. >> all right. espn still has the closets full of toasters. >> because nobody made it through those. >> boy, that was inspiring. >> oh, man. >> both of the candidates -- coming up, we've got a cast of a thousand -- >> not those two guys. >> robert gibbs will be with us, senator rob portman of ohio, the reverend al sharpton will be here, also eugene robinson, but first harold ford jr., katty kay and jon meacham. look at this dramatic exit. >> all right. >> katty leading them out. >> i'd say this is a tad bit contrived. >> democracy plaza.

all right. time now for the must-read opinion pages. we've got this incredible shot that we're coming in on. joining us now while we're still sort of getting ourselves together here. you know what? i think they're all drunk, actually. msnbc political analyst and visiting professor at nyu harold ford jr. you're all put together, of course. pulitzer prize winning historian jon meacham. i'm scared to talk to him. and washington anchor for bbc world news america katty kay joins us. >> can we set the table really quick. >> set the table. >> jon meacham put this in

historical perspective for us today. >> since world war ii, only -- >> you're making this up, aren't you? >> i am, i am. >> go ahead. >> three incumbents have lost competitive races like this out of 11, i think. so we tend to rehire. the three who lost for president, ford, president bush, and who am i missing? president carter. >> right. >> so it's -- history would tend to suggest that the president's going to win. i think one of the things that is different this time is that no one has used the word mandate at all. at this point. to my mind, there's a question about the day after. >> and campaign katty kay, as mika said long ago, the seinfeld campaign about nothing. >> the campaign conducted at a low level, a depressing level,

but incredibly important for america which faces huge challenges, needs to get things done. and the priority of whoever comes out of this as the next president of the united states has got to be to make america governable again. and if they can do that, it's going to depend partly on how voters come out of this feeling and whether they're in the mood and their congressmen and women are in the mood to cooperate with the other side. >> while neither candidate you could argue has been incredibly specific about the next four years, it's not like you don't have a sense of the direction of the country between the two candidates, there is a clear choice here. is there not for voters who were tuned in? >> i think so. the vision's laid out. really in the last month we saw them articulated and forcefully laid out. i do think one big difference in this lame duck and the beginning of next year which has been touched on the year before, i think you will see a massive and robust corporate ceo, financial services ceos, nonfinancial services ceos who will work at a much harder and more focused way

than they did over a year ago when we saw our credit rating downgraded. they want it avoided for the obvious reasons that we're becoming more competitive around the globe, the u.s. economy is growing in areas and u.s. manufacturing is because of energy expiration and production here in the united states. so i think the conditions are ripe just for a different kind of participation, regardless if it's romney or obama from the corporate community. >> we've been looking for the past couple of weeks at polls and there have been certain bets being placed on this election -- >> mustaches -- >> yes. >> grow a mustache -- >> please don't. i beg you. >> that look you had yesterday -- >> let us hope. let us hope. >> let's hope not. >> romney wins pennsylvania so axelrod has to come on the air and shave his mustache. >> oh, that would be something. all right. here's from the washington post, empty measurements. on the eve of the election, nate silver placed president obama's chances of returning to office at 86.3%, not 86.1%, not 87.8%,

at 86.3%. silver's prediction is not an innovation, it's trend taken to its absurd extreme. his work is better summarized as an 83.6% confident that the state polls are correct. the main problem with this approach to politics is that it's trivial and election is not a mathematical equation, it's a nation making a decision. people are weighing the priorities of their society and the quality of their leaders. those views at any given moment can be roughly measured but spread sheets don't add up to a political community. in a democracy, the convictions of the public ultimately depend on persuasion, which resists quantification. and he goes on to write at the closing here, and so at the election's close, we talk of a statistical turnout in cuyahoga county, ohio, and talk little

about sociability and unsustainable debt. the nearer this campaign has come to the end, the more devoid of substance it has become. this is not the advance of scientific riggor. ouch. >> ouch. >> well -- >> mike was not having a good day. >> he was sick of it all. >> yeah. the polls and figuring all this stuff out. there's been a great debate going all over about the polls and some people about nate silver. but at the end of the day, it's a spread sheet. it's an excel spread sheet and it's not about agreeing with math or not. you could set up your excel spread sheet at a home and the bottom line isn't -- nate silver even says it today. if the state polls are wrong, he's wrong. if the state polls are right, he's right. it's just an averaging of the state polls. what's the big deal? >> there are great people in both parties whose voices need to be louder than some of the

other voices that have been loud in this cycle. mike gerson cares about this country, the election, not as sport or spread sheet but as the big choices we have to face. and he is somebody who, again, there are people just like this in the democratic party, as well, who understand that politics is not about spread sheets, but about the flesh and bo blood choices we have to make. and i'm glad you're reading that one because he and people on the other side who are serious need to have big voices. today but also after this election to bring the country together. >> and there's no doubt also that when you try to reduce politics to an equation, when you try to reduce governing to an equation, a math equation, then you overlook some of the great moments in history. and i'm reading right now manchester's biography on churchill. and in 1940 right now, and

churchill himself was really a man that no one foresaw as stepping up to leading great britain through the most momentous year in 1940. and dunkirk, if you would have played the odds with reagan, you would have lost. if you would have played the odds with barack obama in december of 2007, you would have lost. >> bill clinton, '92. >> bill clinton in '92. there's a lot more heart than scientific formula or mathematical formula in politics. >> and the big choices will be made today. we'll talk about the senate races, as well. up next, chris matthews and tom brokaw. stay with us.

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♪ oh, good gracious, here we go. welcome back to "morning joe." it is the top of the hour, we're live this morning on election day from new york's rockefeller plaza renamed democracy plaza for the election, joe. >> yes. >> joe, that means you. >> jon meacham's here still.

>> he sure is. >> he won the pulitzer prize and has a forthcoming book. and onset, we've got tom brokaw and host of "hardball" chris matthews. and mika, he said i was nice in my own -- >> in your own special way. he also says real men don't eat the yogurt you were eating. but anyhow, we're going to be here for five more hours, anyway, we've got special coverage all morning long. we will be watching this election as it unfolds and then we'll end up the night with some vodka at the 92nd street "y." if any of you want to join us, it'll be fun. >> while mika's drinking vodka -- >> yes. >> the results are going to be coming in. you've covered more than a few of these. i always remember your instruction to us the morning of the new hampshire primary in 2008. why don't you just cool it and let the voters vote. >> right. i still feel that way. i don't know what happens today and i don't think anyone out there does for all the confidence that is exhibited by both sides.

i've likened what's going on to a football metaphor. you've got the romney campaign running what effectively is the run and gun offense. and then you've got the ohio state offense going on the other side, which is grind it out and play the ground game. get out the vote. they're very confident they can do that. but in the years i've been doing this, i've known that you don't always translate the passions of crowds in the last two days into actual votes and i know there's a difference between getting a voter on the line and saying are you ready? and they say, yes, i am, walk out the door and change their mind before they get to the ballot box. there's a lot of stuff in play here. and what i love about the process, what i love about this country and the way we govern ourselves is that -- takes this immigrant nation and all the information we have and they're going to make up their mind after a very difficult year for them. it's been way too long, they've been buffeted by, first of all, the republican primaries, i

don't think anybody was ever happy with that stuff and the continuing struggle that we've had with the economy, benghazi going on, and then in the last week the storm. they'll get up this morning, they'll go to the voting booth and they'll decide who they want to run this country for the next four years and they won't do it at the point of a gun. there won't be tanks in the street. it's an amazing process that we're about to go through. >> it really is. really is. >> and chris, you never really know until the voters speak. i talked about new hampshire 2008 when everyone was predicting hillary's career was over. we could talk about 2000, we could talk about john kerry 2004. and tonight, there's sure to be some surprises. >> and the interesting thing, it's a small point, but there's always candidates -- who wins years they didn't have a prayer. like joe biden in '72, which was he built his whole career on, his campaign back in '72.

in utah as a democrat. these guys build careers on bucking the trend. who knows, things are all possible tonight. >> what about pennsylvania? is pennsylvania -- that's your home state. >> i talked to my friends like tom leonard, i keep calling people and they all say 4-6. they're all very confident. and bobby kasey hasn't run a good campaign. and this guy smith has spent a ton of money. >> yeah. >> but i think the kasey name is magic in pennsylvania. >> and most importantly, chris matthews' brother if you were watching "hardball." >> he calls it. he calls it. >> last night -- >> and who is it going to be? >> charlie said it's obama. he tilts a little. >> tilts a little? >> he usually gets it right. >> before we get to the national polling. >> just talking about how we don't know what's going to happen. chris has written two books about john kennedy who remarked

to an aide who had a profile written about him calling the aide brilliant. and kennedy said another 10,000 votes in illinois and we'd all be stupid. so very close. >> let's take a look at polling in recent weeks, which has barely budged. president obama and governor mitt romney deadlocked in a statistical tie with the 2000 election in mind, look back, both sides have already assembled legal teams to handle any voting irregularities or possible recounts. can you imagine that? there is, i guess, a possibility this could be a long night. this contest will likely come down to a handful of swing states which have shown the president with a consistent but razor thin advantage among likely voters. polling precincts and a number of states including virginia and new hampshire have just opened their doors for voting right now as is tradition to tiny new hampshire villages were first to cast ballots.

at midnight, it was a split decision, five votes for each candidate. there were 23 votes for president obama, nine for romney in hart's location. tonight's polls begin closing at 6:00 eastern in kentucky and indiana. and our first big hint of how the night might unfold will come after 7:00 when polls close in another half dozen states, including the battleground state of virginia with 13 electoral votes up for grabs. it's a state that president obama turned blue in 2008 with a seven-point margin. >> and if mitt romney does not carry virginia -- >> it's going to be a long night. >> his path to 270 seems next to impossible. >> it'll be a longer, harder night. it was interesting to hear chris say it was a four to six-point ratio. this morning, another poll out showing michigan to be a tighter race than i thought it would be with romney with a point lead. and i just think it reinforces

what brokaw said. you never know what happens when people go to the polling place. and when i lost in the senate when i had so many people who came up to me that said i voted for you and i wish you won and i had some people not so enthusiastic about my opponent, he said i wondered if you would be too close to the democrats. it led me to believe i would rather lose with a majority of unenthusiastic people. so we'll see as this night progresses. don't get me wrong, i love the enthusiasm about supporters, i'd love the lack of enthusiasm -- >> i think that's a test, by the way, haley barbour said what the republican party has to do is to persuade the people who hired barack obama that they now have to fire him. and that's a tough way of putting it. >> yeah. >> that's what it comes down to. and that's always a big reach when you've got an incumbent running for reelection. you've got to say to the people

who got him there, this has not worked out and did they close the deal? >> he did, chris matthews, have a very good last seven days? >> yeah, in the end, mika, it was all about actions. he got elected on rhetoric, inspiring speeches, and yet if obama makes it tonight, it will be decisions, he actually did things, he hired hillary clinton as his secretary of state, forming unity in the democratic party. >> we're watching joe biden and his wife ready to vote. >> and there's bo. >> he hired hillary and that forced a coalition in the party. second the auto industry thing, he did his version of the dream act. these were specific things he did. i don't think he gave a great speech this year, the whole year. >> i agree. >> bill clinton -- >> i'm just talking about the past seven days, you have this hurricane, you have this symbolic crossing of the aisle with chris christie, which i still don't. >> let me tell you, i think why

it worked was christie was such a big mouth and such a strong presence and gave the keynote and a tough, surly guy, stay out of my face. for him to come out and say let's get this job done and it was so full hearted. and i think that romney had just started to say a couple of days before that, i can be the guy that works across the aisle. >> and then you have the pictures. you have the jobs numbers better than expected. >> the jobs numbers that were better than expected, the ohio event, jon meacham, where romney drew 20 to 30,000. you have the pennsylvania event that john heilemann said was electric, was incredible. and it seems, again, we -- it seems like a jump ball, but sometimes enthusiasm doesn't translate into votes. and i think back to a rally that john kerry had in 2004. i think about 50, 60,000, 70,000 in madison, wisconsin.

>> tom was saying a second ago it's a mysterious transaction that happens. the first two pages of teddy white's making of the president 1960s about how mysterious it is. and you go into the voting booth and it's like the economy. you know, these are an infinite number of decisions that can't be captured as hard as we try. >> the country's republican until 6:00 at night then the workers come home and then it shifts. >> if america goes democratic, it goes democratic after work. >> you had that full-throated endorsement by mayor bloomberg, right? that was it? that probably clinched it there. i think so. apparently. >> has a -- >> has a terrific sense of timing and obviously the city suffered and he did what he thought was best. but i tell you, i think the jobs number -- >> you are -- >> you can't even spin that one. >> he had to really think hard for that terrible spin. >> if the president --

>> what's been said over and over again, i think it's right, it would be without question his courage in extending the auto bailout and his continue early battering of romney. and if romney loses, he will look back and wonder why he didn't offer full defense of what he did earlier and why he didn't become that candidate he became october 3rd. he will look at that fire wall in ohio if he's successful tonight and be very thankful. >> if he'd stayed on the line he was on in the first debate, i'm a business guy, i can create jobs, instead of getting off into benghazi and neo con nonsense, i think he'd be tough to beat tonight. >> and without sandy. i think that sandy had a big impact. that throws a campaign at a time when he really did have momentum. and it is a lot about timing, as you know, joe. >> we had some senate races, marquee senate races in massachusetts. obviously, scott brown, elizabeth warren. you go to virginia and you have

tim kaine and george allen. of course, a couple other races that republican candidates brought to the forefront. missouri, indiana. races that mitt romney would just assume forget about. what are you looking for in the senate races and the house races? >> well, one of the things i'm looking for is whether, in fact, akin makes it in missouri. does look like murdoch has fallen far behind. and i think that's, claire mccaskill holds her seat and that's an important marker for this evening. and a statement about where the tea party and the positions they've been taking especially when it comes to women and their place in american life. i think that obama is the beneficiary of that debate that has been going on around the country. big issue for the senate is do the democrats hold the senate because it's pretty clear that the republicans are going to hang on to the house.

now, a lot of folks have been saying, we're not going to get anything done. you've got to remember that we got a lot done with bill clinton after the republicans took over in '94 because they got his attention and more stuff got done after that, welfare reform and a lot of other stuff and clinton in his own way was able to maneuver the democratic party and stay nimble himself about how to take advantage of that. i think there's a lot to be said for divided government, quite honestly. if you have an attitude on the part of the leadership. look, we're now in the crosshairs of history, we've got a congress that has 11% approval. do we want to end our public life. >> fiscal cliff. >> with this deep, dark scar on all of us. >> and if republicans do end up losing missouri tonight and indiana tonight, add to that their losses in delaware two years ago and nevada two years ago, four races they should have won, and the very people questioning the integrity of

these republican candidates like dick lugar, whether they were real republicans or not, you can talk two years ago about mike cassell. >> right. >> will be the very ones responsible for making harry reid majority leader for another two years and will cause, i think, some re-examination within the party. >> hopefully so for the party's sake. jon meacham, harold ford jr., thank you very much. tom brokaw and chris matthews, stay with us, if you can. still ahead, david axelrod, moderator of "meet the press," david gregory, newt gingrich, and congressman elijah cummings. up next, senior adviser for the obama campaign robert gibbs and more of our political heavy hitters. chuck todd, andrea mitchell, jeff greenfield all standing by at the msnbc experience store off democracy plaza. okay. you know what? >> we're back in a minute. "morning joe." [ male announcer ] wouldn't it be cool if you could combine

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all right. very cool. welcome back to democracy plaza in new york city. and joining us now from chicago, senior adviser to the obama campaign and former white house press secretary robert gibbs. robert, good to have you on the show. how are you feeling today? >> i feel great.

not a lot of sleep, but i feel really good about where we are in this election. >> any bets you want to make with joe? >> i'm happy to bet joe. what does joe want to bet today? >> i don't know, axelrod's going to be losing his mustache if you lose pennsylvania. you decide. i want to ask you about last night as the president gave his final speech of the 2012 campaign. it doesn't seem like that long ago that we were talking to you in iowa in 2007 that i was watching chris matthews introduce an historic figure making his announcement in illinois. that just doesn't seem like that long ago. how did you feel last night as you saw the president tear up making the final political speech of his career? >> you know, it was -- it was heavy with nostalgia. i asked him, you know, are you feeling it? and he said, absolutely.

and you could tell, he even said he had to slow down a little bit because he was beginning to get a little emotional. he was seeing people in iowa before we got into the rally that we'd met, as you said in 2007. it's been an amazing journey and iowa's played a huge role in it. and it was definitely very nostalgic to be there one last time and it felt really good. >> robert, you said on friday that mitt romney is desperate to find a path to 270. especially in pennsylvania, his efforts there are desperate. is it looking today like a desperate situation for the romney campaign when you look at the polls and speak realistically about the situation? >> it is desperate for them. the reason they went to pennsylvania and the reason they're trying to go back to pennsylvania is they understand going through ohio and a number of states throughout the midwest isn't going to bear fruit for them, so they're trying to conjure a genie out of a bottle in this. and i don't think it's going to

work because i don't think the voters in ohio or pennsylvania, you know, have gravitated to his message of tax cuts for the wealthy to get this economy moving again. so, look, i feel pretty good about where we are. look, mika, what we have to do today is make sure we outwork the romney campaign for one more day. we've got to get our guys out to the polls. we've got to make sure people understand as they have in every step of this election just how important today is, and i think if we do that, we're going to be very happy later on tonight. >> well, yeah. there's such great irony here, robert. you're running against a guy who has been driven by data his entire life. mitt romney is a numbers guy. and he makes his decisions based on data. and yet here we are with polls already opening up, and you -- you basically have the data guy banking on emotion while your camp has been talking about data and talking about -- i mean, it

makes me tired. it makes my head hurt when i see all of the contacts you guys have made and all of the numbers you throw at us. you have it down to an extraordinary science. >> well, i was in ohio yesterday and i was talking to the top guys running the state for us and they were they said the republicans said, yeah, we knocked on 75,000 doors in ohio on sunday. and, our state director looks at me and says we knocked on 375,000 doors on sunday. so we feel great because we've invested a lot of time and energy in building this grass roots infrastructure and, you know, if you told me as you might today that's going to come down to making sure you get your vote out, i'd feel pretty good about where we are. i think mitt romney is less led by data, he's drawing a play in the sand to throw the ball deep to see if it works. i just don't think it will

today. >> it's a bit anecdotal, but four years ago, the crowds for candidate barack obama were massive and they were out of control with emotion. and now you see the crowds for mitt romney grow in size. he had 20,000 people in some places. and reports that the crowds for president obama are not -- are just not there. what do you make of that? >> well, i think -- you know, i think we -- >> look at this. >> we had 20,000 last night in iowa. we had 20,000 in madison, we had 15,000 in ohio. look, i think our crowds are just fine. i think our base is energized. they understand what's at stake in this election. they understand that what we have on the line today and what the president has on the line today about the direction that this country's going to take, i feel good about them understanding, you know, like i

said, what's at stake. and i think we've got good energy. you hear the republicans say -- that's just not really borne out in what you see in the polling. i feel good as long as we get our vote out, do what we have to do one more day in this campaign. >> all right, robert gibbs, i figured out a bet we could make. >> what's the bet? >> robert, i bet you that alabama ends up ranked higher than auburn this year. >> i knew it was coming. and i will say this, joe, if you don't feel confident enough to bet on your political party, go to your university, i think that's a great choice. >> you know what? i actually bet on football, but when it comes to america, robert, you know i'm both sides. god bless you, robert gibbs, thank you so much. >> who's going to win more sec games for auburn or southern states for obama? >> welm, that's a good question -- >> i think they have one.

>> they have one. >> robert gibbs, thank you very much. >> that's a pretty good prop bet, isn't it? >> that is a good prop bet. >> call chuck todd and tell him to stop going negative on robert gibbs. one more political ad, mika. >> i'm chuck todd and i approve this message. >> really good talking to you, buddy. it has been quite a long ride, about five years and we really appreciate your friendship through those years. so let's talk about the south really quickly. there are three states, jeff greenfield, the swing states, florida, north carolina, and virginia that we've been talking about. it looks like north carolina's moved into romney's camp. florida, the obama people think they can still win it, but the poll suggests otherwise. virginia closes at 7:00, that's going to tell us a lot. >> but those two states, they're not southern in the way we think about southern. virginia is no longer the home of bogard picering iii.

>> do not insult my friend. >> know your roots. you go on the other side of the potomac, you're in maryland, lobbyist country, lawyer country. and in florida, you know the old saying, the further north you go in florida, the further south you get. so that -- one of the reasons why obama has a chance, he carried both of those states four years ago, they're not southern in the way that the south and alabama, georgia, mississippi move solidly republican. demographically, they're very different. >> i would just say defense contractor country also. virginia, that defense pitch which is what the republicans, we had eric cantor on yesterday and what mitt romney has been saying, trying to blame the president for the sequester which is a -- i think a false argument because it was a shared agreement to avoid the debt ceiling crisis. but the bottom line is that defense argument in that military part of the border is a very powerful argument for the republicans and that's why i

think virginia is going to be so close and it's so hard to call. >> so chuck, when the polls closed in 2004 and all the exit polls suggested that john kerry was going to win, i looked immediately to miami-dade, broward, and palm beach. >> the mar genergins were. >> if you get out of the killing fills without a gap, you're going to win. i knew the whole night was going to be different. we'll look at those three tonight. but talk about virginia. if mitt romney doesn't win virginia, i just don't think he wins this election. what are you looking for at 7:00 when the polls close in virginia? >> well, first of all -- one thing is that northern virginia does get counted later. one thing about, i think the richmond suburbs, we talk about northern virginia all the time. but the president, the reason he carried virginia, you know, the norfolk area and the richmond suburbs, a little more swing they were. they have been a little more swing. it's sort of where it's the other part. you can't win northern virginia

and the state of virginia. you have to do well in norfolk and you have to do well outside in the richmond suburbs. i'll be curious there. virginia was the closest to the country four years ago. for me, it was only deviated by a point, i assume virginia will do the same thing this time. as the polls seem to be tipping in romney's favor, what's the first state to move away from romney a little bit? the talk has been virginia. so i do think we'll know. and that's the other thing. that's a way to watch an election, you don't have to stay up until 3:00 a.m., find out what we've called and not called at 9:00. how do you call a 51-49 race before 10:00? >> inaccurately. we found out. >> exactly. if you call it, you call it inaccurately. i think a lot of these states, i think a lot of these states, they're going to be -- you're

going to hear the words too close to call a lot tonight. >> chris -- >> i'm looking at the big geography, and i thought that mitt romney had a winning hand in that first debate. not just in terms of his overwhelming performance and he won clearly. but that line he was fighting which is i'm a business guy. you want jobs, this is one thing i can do. i'm not a universal man, not a renaissance man, i thought that tex transaction was on the table and winning with women. then he got into benghazi. i think obama got confused. the beginning of his campaign was we're going to be the new democratic party, colorado, nevada, we're going to get virginia, we're not going to pay attention to the old rust belt states then at the end of the campaign they realized that is the heart of the democratic party. now they're back in wisconsin, minnesota, winning ohio big. seems to me their strength should have been in the rust belt, the old guys that wear parkas to football games and root for the bears and the lions. they should have stuck with

them. >> right. >> and if they lose any of those central states in the industrial north -- i think they got problems. i think their real fire wall is that whole part of the country. >> does anybody here believe mitt romney is going to win wisconsin? does anybody believe -- >> i, you know what? i'll be honest -- i think it's going to be closer -- >> i think it's a sleeper. >> let's say ohio is in the -- don't forget there's a path for romney without ohio. frankly the romney campaign talks about it as the be all, end all. there's a reasonable path for them without ohio. not like a crazy path. and that includes it's both colorado and wisconsin. >> colorado and wisconsin and new hampshire. >> who would've thought that wisconsin could be closer than virginia? >> but here's -- think about it, what's the conversation? what's life been like in wisconsin for the last two years? the fight over the role of government has been right there in wisconsin.

where has the clash been between ideologi ideologies? the state of wisconsin. so i think in the story when you're writing the -- jeff's the writer here. wisconsin actually narratively makes the most sense to me to be the state's -- >> that is also, though, andrea what i can see all of us saying the morning after going how did we miss wisconsin? >> it was staring us in the face. >> you elected a senator and governor in '10, this huge recount. it seems to me the morning after, that's the one where we all go -- >> you know, joe, what i would argue is that wisconsin has all those auto suppliers, the industry suppliers and i think that the auto advertisements, the blowback to that, that could be the story that we're all talking about in the next -- in the coming days that ohio, wisconsin, and the rust belt states really reacted in the closing days against that --

>> gore won wisconsin by a handful of votes and kerry won it very close. so the idea it's a solid blue state was never quite right. >> and we also, of course, i didn't even mention you've got a vice presidential candidate from wisconsin. >> but you know what? one of the autopsies of this campaign, if romney comes up short, is going to be their lack of commitment to wisconsin until too late in the game. >> all right. chris matthews, thank you. >> if you picked chris christie, things would have been different. >> yes, they would have. >> they would have been different. >> can you imagine? >> and if you picked jeb bush and so and so. >> a certain senator from ohio. >> we can just if this to death. >> election coverage tonight, jeff greenfield, thank you as well, andrea stay with us if you can. >> you bet. >> host of msnbc's "politics nation," reverend al sharpton. and the "new york times" john harwood. >> they had a singing trio back

in the '60s. >> they did? i bet they were fantastic. u.s. senator rob portman joins the conversation. keep it right here on "morning joe." ♪ you are my sunshine, my only sunshine ♪

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still to come, we've got a great show with david plouffe, senator pat toomey. and also, look at this -- >> sorkin. >> prep school's out today, election day holiday, andrew ross sorkin will be dropping by "morning joe." >> coming up next -- >> the parents like to take the kids voting with them. >> well, very good. andrew ross sorkin will be here, but also from ohio, ground zero of election 2012, senator rob portman. he will be doing imitations of candidates and juggling when we return on "morning joe."

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♪ 42 past the hour. look at that aerial view of democracy plaza. as we are covering election day. welcome back to "morning joe." andrea mitchell is still with us. and joining the table, the host of msnbc's "politics nation" and president of the national action network reverend al sharpton. also former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst steve rattner joins us. he has charts, he's going to tell us what's going to happen today. >> what's going to happen? >> what's going to happen? >> yeah. >> the president's going to win. >> intrade has been around for about ten years, two presidential elections, both of them right. in 2004, it got 50 out of 50 states, in 2008, got 48 out of

50 states. >> well, then let's go home. >> if you want to know what it's predicting. it's been predicting an obama victory up until the first debate. it had obama on a roll, not surprising will, he came down a bit from there, but at about a 70% probability. >> this is based on bets, right? >> real people betting real money and expressing their views. this isn't nate silver, this is a different thing. >> republicans like this, this is the market. >> this is the market, exactly. a republican guy. let's look at the battleground states where intrade has a strong point of view that the president's going to win ohio, he's going to win new hampshire, he's going to win iowa. and that obviously is enough to put him over the top. and the only two that are at all close are virginia and colorado. and even since we did these charts, the president's moved a little further ahead in virginia and colorado, but those you probably rate closer to the toss-up end. but obviously as chuck well knows, if he does what intrade

says, he'll get 270. >> i like the colorado money. there's some money to be made. >> there is. >> we don't bet on races. >> we don't. but i might put contracts on the underdog here. >> if you look at where that puts the president -- >> he's joking, everybody. >> no i mean -- i'm a market guy -- >> if i did. if i had an -- >> head of nbc news standard, chuck is joking. >> even without colorado and virginia as chuck well knows, that puts the president to 281, if you add colorado and virginia, gets him a little over 300. and a quick look at the senate races because intrade has a strong point of view, as well. >> i like this. >> start off with mika with elizabeth warren. elizabeth warren in massachusetts. >> does she win? >> big. >> these are high-probability predictions. claire mccaskill, a democrat, chris murphy beats linda mcmahon in connecticut, tim kaine in

virginia, and the closest races in montana, tester is the slight underdog. >> i bet it's thursday. >> hey, let's bring in right now from columbus, ohio, republican senator of ohio and a man who is an adviser of the romney campaign and wishes he could vote too on intrade because he would think it would make a lot of money is senator rob portman. looks like a lot of money being bet on democrats, rob, this is our chance. this is our chance to make us some cash. >> clearly they've been watching msnbc too much, joe, that's all i can say. >> oh. oh. the little jab there. okay. >> very good. >> luckily it's the voters who get to decide. luckily the voters get to decide. and i'll tell you, the passion's on our side this year. i heard you playing the boss there, the music, they had the boss yesterday, we had the passion. i was at my 20th rally in ohio in the last month or so and the energy and enthusiasm is on our

side. as you know, at the end of the day, if you've got a grass roots machine in place, which we do and of you got the energy and enthusiasm, it gives you an advantage. i think we'll pick up ohio and they say so goes the country. >> okay. so let's get into the politics of this. and past seven, eight, nine days, we had a better-than-expected jobs number. i think the last time the republican thought the jobs number was too low and it was skewed. so i'm not sure what you all thought of this one. >> we thought it was high because it was higher than the month before, it's higher than when president obama -- well, mika, here's a president who says he inherited a terrible economy, it was crashing, and look, it was a tough situation, but the unemployment number on friday is higher than it was the day he was sworn into office. i don't think that's good news for the democrats. i think it shows that, you know, we haven't turned the corner, and gosh, i can't believe people think it's good to have 7.9%.

and when you have folks who left the jobs market, it's over 10%. this economy is clearly weak and not improving the way the president hoped it would. >> to add to that point, reverend al, i'll go to you on this. the jobs number, i guess you could look at it that way and you could say it's better than expected and there's a lot of data pointed in a positive direction, housing consumer confidence. hold on one second, senator. >> okay. >> but the economy is different. what may help romney is that even though the numbers look good, the jobs are different. >> the jobs are different -- >> there are jobs that are not lasting -- >> lower wages. >> there's lower wages. we talked about income last week. could that ultimately help mitt romney? >> it could. but the problem that i think that mr. romney and all due respect senator portman have, we went from the surplus economy with clinton, we went to job losses with bush, now we're going through 23 straight months of job adding jobs, including

171,000 jobs last month. so people are saying that we're headed in the right direction. do we wish we were headed there more quickly? yes. romney has in many ways represented where we were trying to get away from. >> but, joe, people are -- it's the data that is saying we're headed in the right direction. the question is, are people feeling that way? >> well, and rob, that's the -- senator, that's the real challenge, i guess, for mitt romney in your home state of ohio, things have turned around. you look at the right track/wrong track in ohio. it's certainly more positive than it was a year ago. isn't that at the end of the day mitt romney's biggest challenge? >> well, it is better, joe, but still a wrong track ohio. in other words, people still think we're headed in the wrong direction by a majority. we reflect the country on wrong track numbers and our employment number, you're right, closer to 7%. but again, when you add folks who are looking for work, it's close to 10%.

and we lost 800 jobs in ohio last month. in terms of this recovery, which economists agree this is the worst recovery since the great depression if jobs. we're about 4 million jobs down from where we were from the recession as compared to a recession that was also deep. the unemployment numbers are even higher in '81 with ronald reagan. we are over 7 million jobs ahead by this point. that's what people are looking at, gosh, are we going to turn this thing around? we haven't been able to the last four years. mika said earlier it was a better jobs number than expected last month. actually, it was worse than expected if you are the obama administration because they expected it to be in the low 5s. it's 50% higher than that. if you're an independent voter you're thinking, hey, let's give mitt romney a chance because he does have a plan and it's new proposals to turn things around. >> all right. senator rob portman -- >> senator, thauch. >> thanks a lot. >> thank you, guys. thanks, reverend. >> we'll be looking at your

state very close tonight. so, chuck, things have turned around economically in ohio. john kasich says it. >> kasich's jobs rating, job approval rating and the president's job approval rating were about a point apart. what does that tell you? >> about the same. as goes ohio so goes the country. >> i think they will all have to re-examine that last advertisement on jeeps. that really backfired on mitt romney. if he does end up losing ohio it's that whole toledo area. >> the jeep brand hurt them. i read the engaged and the enrage enraged and they are coming out to vote. there's a lot of passion out there. >> where do i go online for that? >> i compared my passion to senator portman's passion and you get the difference between romney and the obama campaign. >> senator portman's passion is on the way. we've all heard remarkable events in ohio. >> huge crowds.

>> that's some passion. >> i mean, they actually had to tell people you can't go to the restro restroom, wait, wait, wait for romney. he's doing great with rallies. >> all right, reverend al sharpton, andrea mitchell, and steve ratner. >> i hope he has a big crowd for his concession speech. >> come on now, reverend al. >> people are going out to vote. >> it's too early to call. >> is that going to be our drink? >> thank you so much. still ahead we have senior mccain campaign senator steve smith here. we promise. and former white house director. >> i thought he was supposed to be here at 6:00. >> you're watching "morning joe" live from democracy plaza. insanity reigns for the next 18 hours.

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welcome back to "morning joe." we're out here this morning on democracy plaza. this place is incredible. they give you a brief walking

tour of this place. you start up here. here is our "morning joe" set, are where we'll be another four hours this morning. joe, mika, david gregory getting ready to sit down in there. if you swing back the other way right across the plaza you'll see matt lauer looking curiously down this way. there he is. give us a wave, matt, and savannah, too. you're on live television. very exciting for them to be on live tv. we have "morning joe" and the tod today show. first of all the building here. if you look upstairs, we have essentially window washing hois hoists. they'll go up as the electoral votes come in, you'll see them move up and as you know the first man to 270 or about the 12 1/2 floors, we're counting it, wins the presidential election. as those states come in, you'll see the color go down here on the ice. we have the skating rink. we'll have people on skates putting them down as red or blue as we call the states.

one more thing to point out. back in the corner there, chuck todd. his own personal man cave just to the left of the statue of prome it theus. two gods of journalism. chuck todd next to it. back on "morning joe" with david axelrod back live on this election day 2012. ♪

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♪ on election day 2012, we're live from democracy plaza here in 30 rock. msnbc has turned this iconic center into election headquarters as voters head to the polls this hour and throughout the day to choose the next president of the united states. we kick things off at 5:30 a.m. and we're going straight until noon today, joe. >> just in the last hour vice president joe biden and his wife, jill, cast their ballots in greenville, delaware. the vice president was asked, do you think this will be the last time you'll be voting for

yourself? >> what did he say? >> he said, not on your life. >> of course he did. but two small touwns got th jump. in dixville notch it was a split decision, five votes for each candidate. >> and in hart's location, 23 votes for president obama. nine for mitt romney. new hampshire is one of a handful of critical swing states where the polls showed the president with a consistent but razor thin lead among likely voters. >> looking ahead to tonight polls begin closing at 6:00 eastern in kentucky and indiana and we'll begin to see important results roll in after 7:00 when polls close in another half dozen states including the b battleground of virginia with 13 electoral votes up for grabs. it's a state president obama turned blue back in 2008 by a seven-point margin. >> the latest poll shows a statistical dead heat and the next batch of closings after

7:00, of course, happens at 7:30. among them two more key states of perhaps the most important ohio as well as north carolina. as we've heard a lot of times by now, no republican has ever won the white house without taking the buckeye state. >> so with us on set we have the moderator of "meet the press" david gregory, chief washington correspondent of cnbc and political writer for the "new york times", john harwood, pulitzer prize winning columnist and editor of "the washington post" and msnbc political and a list, eugene robinson, and co-host of the radio show smiley west and the tavis smiley show, tavis smiley. we also have david axelrod are standing by. >> what's he got to say? he's out of it now. >> he's marginalized. even if he wins he's a lame duck. >> that photo of him without the mustache. >> go to david right now. >> david, by the way -- >> david, you'd better win.

>> we have a picture of you without your mustache. and an artist rendering of me as freddie fender. not good looking. >> exactly. david, how do you feel this morning? >> i'm feeling great. first of all, happy election day. it's an exciting day. so i always get jazzed up for this, but i really feel good about it. we have work to do today to get our vote out but i believe we're going to get our vote out as we did in the early vote and we're going to have a very good day and, joe, let me just say i bought myself a new mustache comb because i know i'm going to be needing it. and -- and, joe, i bought you one, too, because i know you're going to be needing one, too. so i'm all set. >> this ises really -- i don't know. >> it's disturbing. >> yeah, it is, actually. >> are you really going to do that?

>> he has to. >> his wife, susan, is going to shave it on the air. >> a deal is a deal. >> on this show. >> a deal is a deal. >> i want to know if joe will go through with it? >> oh, yes, he is. >> if the president wins florida or north carolina i have no choice. >> guys, let me just say something here. joe and i don't agree on everything but he is a man of integrity. i know he'll keep his word. >> he set me up. >> the only question isn't whether he's going to have a mustache it's whether it will be a fu manchu or a razor thin kind of one. but he's going to have a mustache and i know he'll keep his word. >> the same with you, david. the same with you. pennsylvania. pennsylvania. pennsylvania. >> so having said that, david axelrod -- speaking of pennsylvania, a lot of people on the romney campaign are feeling pretty good this morning and they feel like they might actually pull this one through. >> well, hope springs eternal. the reality is that we go into the day i think with a very

solid lead. obviously, as i said, i don't want to discourage anyone from voting because we need every vote. but, look, i've said since they serve this had pennsylvania strategy over the weekend this was more of a prayer than a plan because they understand how much trouble they're in in the state of ohio are where derek and that became even more difficult for them because of the flap over the auto industry and the president's intervention. >> where is the solid lead? >> excuse me? >> where is the solid lead? is there a poll i haven't seen? in pennsylvania? we all have access to data. we are talking about a state with a 1.1 million democratic registration advantage. and they would have to have, you know, an extraordinary, unprecedented day in pennsylvania to win today.

and there's nothing what i'm looking at that suggests that will happen. the problem they have isn't the math in pennsylvania, it's the electoral math whmt you're losing states like ohio, iowa, nevada, colorado, you know, you have to find the votes somewhere. so i think they're scrambling around trying to find a way to make up those states they're not going to win. >> david gregory, david axelrod has said, in pennsylvania if you're a democrat in pennsylvania, you get a 1.1 million vote advantage. so just stay home today. it doesn't really matter. do you have a question for david axelrod? >> both sides encouraging everybody to vote as are we. david, my question about the assertion that the romney team makes, which is, look, there's no way that in 2012 with the enthusiasm and the and ttagonis toward president obama that you're not going to have a higher republican turnout, that the percentage of the white

vote, white republicans won't be higher than four years ago when mccain didn't have this kind of operation, didn't have these kinds of conditions. the gop brand was in a much different place. your side has less enthusiasm among young people and minority voters. so why is it that you think the electorate is going to look so close to 2008 instead of what they're saying which is something of a republican surge? >> well, david, obviously we'll know the answer in a very short time. but look at the early vote. the fact is that we won early voting every single state that has early vote and there's been record breaking turnout among african-americans. a strong turnout among young people, and strong turnout among sporadic voters who didn't vote in 2010 and new registrants and we registered hundreds and hundreds of thousands, more than a million new voters around this country, and particularly in those battleground states. so, you know, they have a theory, as i've said several

times. our analysis is base d on cold, hard data and what we see in front of us. and if they have this great wave of enthusiasm, it has yet to surface. >> david, it's tavist smiley. you said a moment ago record turnout in the early voting. what would happen if the president were to lose this r e race? i don't think he will. what if he woke up and he in part lost because of the margin of black absence at the polls. you can only play the history card one time. how about the campaign process? you can only play the history card one time. you know those black folks who do turn out today are going to clearly vote for the president. but how concerned are you about turnout amongst his base, namely african-americans, hispanics? let's start with the african-american question. >> well, tavis, you know i'm not going to answer a hypothetical that i don't believe will happen. and the reason i don't believe it will happen is because of what we've seen in early voting. a state like georgia which isn't

within those battleground states and there hasn't been a huge campaign effort of the sort we've seen in those battleground states and you've seen record breaking turnout in the early vote among african-americans, i, as we travel the country with the president in the last four days, the energy that we've seen has been enormous. so that's a hypothetical that i don't think we're going to have to deal with. i believe the president is going to get a strong turnout. i want to urge everyone who is watching this program this morning to go out and vote and make your voices heard, but i haven't seen any lack of enthusiasm on the part of not just african-american voters but people across the spectrum who are part of the president's coalition to go out and vote today. >> unless, of course, you're a democrat in pennsylvania. and get a 1.1 million vote advantage. >> he's just trouble. >> and they can still lose pennsylvania. david could lose his mustache. but they still could get around 270. >> you really don't want to grow

a mustache, do you? is. >> i want to see susan axelrod come on -- >> i love susan but i don't want to see her do that. >> shave his mustache and i will donate $5,000. >> only $5,000? >> whoa. >> actually, i might -- >> i'll tell you what, david -- if she only shaves one half of the mustache, i'll make it $10,000. >> i was going to go for the $5,000. that part i don't know about. >> a unibrow. >> after we made that bet and she offered to shave it off on the air, she also said to me, i hope you know what you're talking about. >> thank you so much and good luck today. we greatly appreciate you being here. >> all right, thank you. >> what a strange thing

happening. so, gene, this is a fascinating campaign. fascinating the last couple of days because we keep hearing head versus heart. your head says the president will win. heart tells me there are a lot of people that have even been on set this morning that tell me off air there's no evidence of it but i feel like romney is moving. >> i kind of feel like the evidence of it somewhere, you know. >> i know. other than 30,000 people in pennsylvania, 20,000 in ohio. >> but crowd size is such a bad -- as you know, such a bad indicator of which way an election is going to go. >> remember how the dukakis campaign was feeling it in '88. >> right. we were on a roll. and so i have to believe the data. the state i'm really curious about is your state actually. and that's the one that i kind of have a funny feeling about, that that's not going to be as

easy a state for the republicans as is thought but, of course, you know the state better than i do. the early voting lines and wondered if florida might not make it an earlier evening for us than otherwise it might. >> i was going to say, john, if florida is close, this race is over. >> well, it is going to be close. i would expect romney slightly better than 50/50 chance of carrying it but it will be close regardless. i think one of the things we have to watch is what the party i.d. spread is. that's been the argument about all these polls. a fund aamental difference of analysis between the two campaigns. the democrats think it's going to be plus four, plus five democrat. republicans think it's going to be around plus two. and as david said, we'll find out in a few hours. >> david gregory, we haven't -- what has frustrated a lot of people, mark halperin and i have talked about it for some time, the independent votes. in the national polls mitt romney ahead by double digits.

the gap much closer than people expected even a month or two ago and he's still behind in the models and you scratch your head and say, well, if you had told us six months ago that one of the candidates would be up by double digits, you would say they'll win the election. not the case here. >> well, because we've seen that president obama didn't win independent voters and still came out ahead. mitt romney is ahead in our latest poll seven points among independent voters. their campaign points to that as a real strong sign. the obama team says, look, if you look at his favorability rating it's upside-down among those who self-identify as independent voters, so how are the late breakers going to break for him? the obama team thinks a lot of the undecided folks are just not going to vote so that's ultimately how white this electorate is, how republican versus democrat it is. that's the deal. >> that's the thing. if you have a plus five democratic electorate, the independents don't matter as much because you can sustain a loss of five, six, seven points. >> i think this is really about

offense versus defense. if president obama has better defense than romney, it's over. if he can protect the midwest, it's game over. >> eugene, does it all come down to the economy ultimately? >> that's cheerily the huge issue. >> if that's the huge issue, isn't that why we're sittinging on the edge of our seats? you have numbers that are good but you have a situation when you go out there in the country that is not good. or that is spotty at best in terms of recovering and it's a new economy. >> so if the economy were roaring we would be confident in what's going to happen. if the economy were still totally in the tank, we would be confident about what will happen. it's on the edge. it has gotten better. jobs have been added every month. >> oh, sure. i think on paper it's gotten better. >> and romney is winning the economy in our poll. romney is up. >> it's up on the economy but economic confidence and people's sense of the economy has improved. it has improved in every poll.

>> so, tavis, we've heard time and again that the president's crowds -- over the past weekend, the president's crowds are smaller and less enthusiastic than four years ago. we saw nbc -- i mean, "the new york times" talk about it over the weekend. what are your feelings as the president is about to end his final campaign? what are your feelings? do you feel a bit melancholy four years later? >> i was honored to be on nbc four years ago when the election was called for barack obama and i will never forget that night as long as i live being that we never will but african-american man, i don't even have a language to describe what that felt like four years ago. i could not have imagined that four years later this race would be as tight as it is today with all of the hope and all the

enthusiasm and all of the energy that he came to the white house with. i'm just surprised quite frankly, so melancholy is an interesting word. i didn't know how i would fael waking up this morning not knowing how this would turn out. two things, one, i think there's a danger in any campaign being too overconfident. you would be making a joke about the pennsylvania thing but there's something real there. this early in the day if you're already declaring victory here, there, and everywhere, then that doesn't motivate people to get out to vote as the day goes on, number one, and that is a particularly -- of particular concern to me for a second reason. we just had so much of the president's base, gene and mika were talking about, so many are people who don't have jobs. they've lost their homes. you talk about people of color that make up such a huge part of the president's base. if that constituency, they're disaffected already. and if, in fact, they don't get out today, he's in trouble.

as i said earlier to david, they don't want to lose -- they don't want to realize they lost by the margin of absence by their supporters. >> and, by the way, gene, and we have to go but this is an important point to make. if the obama campaign was so confident about pennsylvania, they wouldn't have sent bill clinton there twit. twice. >> trust but verify. if they're going to be in pennsylvania and you have -- >> a pretty good strong safety. >> if you have bill clinton there and, frankly, if you're fairly confident about ohio and clearly the obama campaign has felt really good about ohio and so just on the off chance maybe they know something we don't know, send in lyclinton. >> eugene robinson and john harwood, thank you so much. david gregory, can you stick around? >> absolutely. coming up the host of "the ed show" ed schultz and the

bbc's katty kay rejoins the table. and tonight as the ballots are being counted joe and i will be hosting a special election roundtable discussion with vodka shots at the 92nd street "y" in upper manhattan. oh, yes. go to 92y for tickets. that's 92y.org. all proceeds from the event are being donated to relief efforts for hurricane sandy. and if you can't make it in person the discussion will be live streamed on our blog, mojo.msnbc.com. that's tonight starting at 8:15. hope to see you there. that will be lots of fun. >> gene doesn't know it, he will be there, jon meacham and the cast of thousands. >> bring your mustache comb. >> it will be fun.

we're going to try to stump some political junkies with questions from bing elections. do you know where your polling place is? maybe somewhere around my house. mine's just, right over that way. well you can find out exactly where it is using bing elections. it's a good day for politics. which way do you lean politically? conservative. republican. well, using the bing news selector you can find news from whichever way you lean. (together) social on this side, financial. which party is currently predicted to win a majority in the senate? the republicans? would you make a bet on that? no. are you chicken?

i hope everyone exercises their right to vote. it's a great honor and people standing in line in a lot of places, stand in line as long as you have to and vote. >> any prediction for tonight? >> i'm feeling pretty good. >> the last time you're going to vote for yourself, do you think? >> no, i don't think so. >> yeah, baby. >> 24 past the hour. >> we have biden in '16. >> to "morning joe." the host of msnbc's "the ed show." get out your cell phones, everybody. ed schultz. and the editor of the new yorker -- oh, my god, you're back. wait a minute. are you sure? i didn't think you'd come back. >> gentlemen says he's going to be nice. >> after i was accosted, sipping

my drink, he starts yelling at me. it made me sad. >> i'm sorry. would you please not be so ab s abrasive with joe this morning. >> you're going to get your just desserts at the 92nd street "y" tonight. >> you're in trouble. >> wait until tonight. >> the bbc katty kay is back with us. we're going to let her actually talk today. >> in a second. >> ed? >> ed, what are you looking at? a lot of states are in play but what states are you looking at? >> well, i don't think the president will lose wisconsin and i think that he has a very good shot in virginia. the demographics in virginia have changed a great deal. the eastern part of the state, the todd warner area has old dough mminion university. it has norfolk state. it has hampton university.

there's a real effort on the eastern part of the straight, a strong minority. also the military vote is not a lock for romney in the eastern part of the state so i think virginia is real hadly in play. >> that closes it -- the polls close at 7:00 there. we could know pretty early how this race is going. >> we could. that would be a big loss for romney if the president wins virginia, so that's the state i'm looking at there. i think the president can win ohio but it's going to be closer than the polls think. we may not have a decision on ohio tonight. i really believe that. the provisional ballots could be the swing. >> so let's talk about which wisconsin. i think that's a fascinating state. obviously it's a state you know very well. chuck todd was here earlier and i said is wisconsin a sleeper? is that one of those things we wake up the next day and say they elected republicans in 2010. you had the recount. does the voting -- the pool of voters grow so much that it favors -- >> the question for which is with which is, is it a state that's politically exhausted?

they've been through a lot over the past two years but brilliantly what governor walker did, he ran against the recall. he spent most of his money telling the residents of wisconsin that this process is wrong. you hired me to do the job. let me finish the job, and a lot of people in the state didn't like the recall. but keep in mind the democrats won more recall elections in that state than the republicans did. they took the senate back. so president obama knows where the breadbasket is. he's been 0 to madison just within the last 48 hours. it was a huge rally. i think it was a very smart and calculated move. >> and what's interesting about that, katty, if you're right, virginia and wisconsin, if that's in obama's column, he could lose ohio. he could lose florida. he would be four shy, he could get that in new hampshire. so that's why the midwest. he should be winning wisconsin.

>> they kept him so under wraps. you wonder whether he's had much impact. i don't know where ryan had been. i don't know if it's because of the differences in policy over the budget that he came out with because of women and they're scared of ryan's more socially conservative position on women voters. for some reason they kept him under wrams and so i think where he could have helped in wisconsin, you have to keep asking if they had chosen portman as the running mate, would ohio? >> the big problem, david, early on is you had separation between paul ryan and mitt romney. >> well, it was hard to tell. >> the presidential candidate going back and forth so much. it's hard to tell where the differences are for a lot of voters. >> oh, gosh. >> he's baiting me. >> he is. >> unfortunately in this case i agree with you so i can't pick a fight. that was fascinating where paul ryan would come out early and then the romney campaign would

run away from paul's position and you just wonder why they select him if they weren't going to use him. if he just with wins wisconsin it's huge victory. >> and he probably won't. i think ed is right. i think he probably wanted to be narrow. i think you'll know a lot by 7:00. i agree with you, virginia is crucial. if obama wins virginia -- >> there's not a path -- >> i don't see it. i really don't see it. and because the polls for all the discussion about nate silver, nate silver is aggregating polls. he's aggregating legitimate polls. >> it's a spread sheet. >> the spread in ohio is not nothing. and people in the obama campaign may be cocky when they start talking about florida or even north carolina, which i think would be amazing. i don't think it will happen. >> and just havevirginia. >> just virginia. >> if romney loses virginia and virginia in a way represents the challenge that the republican

party has in the future with the changing demographics of the country, right? you have all of these hispanics moving into northern virginia who the democrats have a message for. the republicans at the moment don't have a message for young hispanic voters and they will have to change that. that's why they'll lose virginia if they change it. >> if mitt romney loses by a point, let's say, isn't that going to be a re-examination of mitt romney trying to dart far right of rick perry on immigration issues that could cost them nevada, colorado, virginia. >> i think, joe, there's three things that were unanticipated hurdles that the romney camp had to go through. i think the automobile issue became a giant that they had to deal with. i think akin and the murdoch story became something that certainly the romney camp didn't anticipate. and the third thing was one of the reasons why ryan has been such a controversial pick is

because he's carrying that budget with him. that budget is revolutionary. that budget is something that would really change our priority list on where we put our money in this country and it became radical and it gave the obama team an opportunity to really focus in, okay, this is what romney wants. this is what he believes in. so those three stories, i think, were unanticipated hurdles. >> it is striking that we're not having a real debate about entitlements which is such a critical issue. not really having it. we're not having it in a presidential campaign. >> with all due respect, i have a feeling you'll disagree with this ad but that is, i think, why the ryan pick was this brave and interesting and edgy. and i mean, not that it has to be a bible but it had to be something that symbolized, you know what, doing brave things. >> to go there you have to go there. >> you have to go there. >> you've got to jump in.

>> that's why the obama people like that pick because it forced the imagery of romney right. >> we have elijah cummings that we're going to bring in in a minute. ed brought up murdoch and akin. does harry reid have a four-leaf clover? you have mur dabbing and akin who may lose indiana and missouri, two states they should have won going away, and two years ago christine o'donnell who really lost a seat. and then sharon engel in nevada. harry reid should be retired watching boxing matches. >> it's political malpractice on the part of the republicans if you want to be in leadership. >> even if the margin is narrow and obama wins subject tomorrow morning has got to be in many ways, we'll have many issues to cover, but politically the fate of the republican party. >> there's no doubt about it. >> demographically, ideologically and all the rest.

it's in real trouble even if the margin is narrow. >> and the big question is especially for conservative, movement conservatives are going to be asking how did we lose this race? we will be asking the question that democrats and people that write for the new yorker were asking after you lost to george w. bush twice. let's go now to elijah cummings in baltimore, maryland. how's it going, buddy? how are you feeling? >> i feel great. >> are you going to guarantee that the president will carry maryland tonight? are you willing to step out on a limb? >> by at least 25 points. by at least. and i agree with ed, by the way, that i have a strong feeling he's going to carry havevirgini. let me tell you why. here in maryland we have sent thousands of people into virginia and pennsylvania over the last six months. as a matter of fact maryland has expo exported a lot of our folks down there and every weekend they're going down there talking to folks and they've been going

sometimes during the week. and so the feedback we've gotten back is that they feel very good about virginia. they don't see -- at best -- at worst a tie. we really believe we're going to win virginia. >> congressman, this is ed. what has been the best thing that has happened to the obama campaign throughout all of this when it comes to having a target to really define what mitt romney is all about? >> i think that when he appointed ryan, to be very frank with you -- i mean, there were people that were very pleased about the ryan pick. he's a great guy but you all are right. that budget that ryan has is one that goes against so much of what my constituents need and what they want. and they go in the opposite direction of the president. but there's an issue, ed, that a lot of people have. this thing of voter suppression. i listened to you yesterday and you were laughing about it --

>> i wasn't. >> i know you weren't, mika. >> i wasn't. >> take it very seriously. david gregory goaded me and it makes me sad. now you're laughing. >> it's an emotional -- i predicted a long time ago that african-american people would come out in record numbers and that's already what is happening in my district. they are coming out in record numbers because they do not like the idea there seems to be a concerted effort to stop them from voting. i literally have talked to particularly elderly people, literally crying. they're okay here in maryland. but when they look at the lines -- >> in florida. >> it's like we're going backwards. i feel very bad about that. >> three hours is a poll test. >> and it's a republican african-americans and they will say the same thing. this backfired against the party. why do they bring up these electoral rules that looked like they were trying to stop african-americans from voting? it got the base out. >> elijah, let me ask you, after the 2000 election the chaos of

2000 we heard that washington was going to try to pass are more uniform laws. so each state -- so we didn't have such a patchwork that led to the chaos of the 2000 recount. why haven't we been able to move forward to guarantee that what happened in south florida, what you say you're seeing in maryland wouldn't happen again? >> joe, i think there was not a desire on the part of the congress, and what i mean is everybody wanted to basically have their own state rules, you know, people want to control -- you know, joe. you've been in congress. they want -- >> i wasn't paying attention. >> but i'm serious. but going back to what i said, there's another thing that's happening with african-american people that will cause them to turn out in even greater numbers. a lot of people feel very upset about the way this president has been treated. they feel he's been treated unfairly in so many ways and they know that everything he has tried to do, they are very much aware of this, the republicans

have tried to stop him. and then they hear people say, oh, he didn't get along with everybody. well, when you have somebody trying to get you out of office before you even get into office and going against every single thing you try to do, i mean, it's kind of hard to be friends. but i'm hoping that after this election is over that they will say, you know what, we've got to do what is right by the american people with this president and so that weigh all merge together. governor christie and the president. that was an emotional picture to me to see those gays who really care about this country emerge to do some great things for people who are in trouble. that's the image we need. >> they do, congressman but, mika, we know chris christie very well. we know he only did that so he could hug bruce springsteen. >> and ride in air force one. so congressman elijah cummings, thank you. >> thank you. >> you mentioned joe was in congress. a little fact on the day you were elected. your nephew was born and it's his birthday.

>> 18 years ago today. >> isn't that nice? thank you very much, elijah. >> thank you. >> david and ed schultz, thank you as well for coming back. i mean, really, why would you do that? you're a glutton. now i understand something about you. ed, so great to see you. you have a long night ahead of you. still ahead this morning it could be too close to call in ohio and pennsylvania. we'll talk to leaders from both battleground states, former democratic governor of ohio ted strickland and republican senator from pennsylvania senator pat toomey. but first -- oh, no. louis will do his best to try to find ohio and pennsylvania on the map. that's never going to happen. he'll be out there for hours. he'll be out there for hours. >> do not go over texas. >> will you is on ice straight ahead on "morning joe."

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welcome back to "morning joe. ". >> louis, can you hear us? >> loud and clear. it's beautiful down here. >> okay, that's great. be quiet, louis. so, louis, that piece of paper you are holding? see that guy, that security

guard, give him the piece of paper. >> no, come on. >> hand it over. turn around. okay. >> all right. >> that was his guide. >> that's my cheat sheet. >> louis, take us through the states tonight. >> okay. >>berg dorf on ice. >> up the northeast corridor here, north carolina. >> and then we'll go up, we'll go to new hampshire which is right over here. >> yep. >> and then we'll go to iowa which is somewhere over here. >> you have to stop -- >> you have to stop, louis. >> stop? the swing state. >> he's going down. >> colorado. >> okay, colorado, i have to get some speed to get back to colorado here. >> he doesn't know where colorado is. >> it has to be it on the country. you swung all the way over to portugal. >> colorado. >> don't mess with texas. >> where else do i need to go? i know that one. pennsylvania and ohio.

>> all right, louis. we'll try that four years from now. stick around to "morning joe." louis, thanks, i think. we have business before the bell. we're going to use flames on that so stick around with brian sullivan who will light his hair on fire as this special edition of "morning joe" continues. >> this is bad. look at him.

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in one win over another but solids are higher. they all look like a higher day today. in fact, we're starting to see stocks, i think, maybe with more clarity if you talk to most wall streeters they will tell you publicly and privately they do believe that president obama will be re-elected and we are looking at higher futures, a higher market the last couple of days. we'll see what happens. >> the stock surging. it's called the biden rally. joe biden announcing he will run four years from now. >> that's the news of the morning. >> that is the news of the morning. >> thanks to mark halperin. all right, brian, anything else? >> reporter: yeah. listen, guys, here is the thing. if you talk to most people as well the biggest day may be a week from today, because the election is huge but congress back in session one week from today and everybody says, listen, the fiscal cliff has to be resolved. i hate to harp on this thing. the it's a big thing. they have to figure this out and that's before the end of the

year the big deal and to your previous point, joe, isn't it clear my hair has already largely been burned off? >> it has been burned off but you still have a little left. brian, thank you so much for being with us and, mika, if you ever ask brian if he has anything else that's like asking me if i can talk for another three hours. >> that was a mistake. >> thank you so much, brian. we greatly appreciate it. mark halperin, are you ready to call district of columbia yet? >> the closest thing besides the vice president is florida where there's lots of reports of long lines, the problems with ballots and machines. that's a state we cannot ignore thats as something that could go from little to big. >> good lord. good lord. >> real fast. >> real fast. >> so stay with us because apparently we will be bringing in former senior mccain campaign strategist steve schmidt. i'll believe it when i see it. former white house adviser melanie barnes and the national journal's major garrett. what is wrong with you, david gregory? ♪

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welcome back to "morning joe." it's time to talk about what we learned today. katty in the techie color coat, what have you learned? >> on election day the uniform is purple. let's hope that means four years of cooperation to come. >> michael steele? >> it's a lot like being in the back seat of your family's car, are we there yet? we're here. >> mika? >> 18 years ago today you were elected to congress. >> right. >> and -- >> and also benjamin scarborough was born. happy birthday.